اقرأ المحتوى باللغة العربية
Despite being mired in the Ukraine conflict, Russia continues to strengthen its influence in the region and nurture ties with various players, including Yemeni actors. “What happened in the Middle East after October 7 has made Russia view the whole region from a different lens,” said Michael Yakushev, a former Russian diplomat and Expert on Eurasian Affairs.
On August 28, the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, in partnership with the Center for Arab-Eurasian Studies, organized a discussion on Russia’s strategic position on the current Red Sea crisis. The panel was moderated by Amr Abdel-Hamid, Director of the Center for Arab-Eurasian Studies.
Noting Russia’s long-standing support of the Palestinian cause, Yakushev observed how the general perception among ordinary Russians is that the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) has stepped up as the only Arab actor defending the Palestinians from Israel’s aggression. “When the Russian people saw this bravery by the Houthis, the hearts of the Russian people were with this Yemeni Shia group, and supportive of it in its actions. And this stance has remained until now.”
On the diplomatic front, however, Yakushev said that Moscow is striving to strike a balance and act as a middle ground to foster rapprochement between the Houthis and Yemen’s Internationally Recognized Government — as evidenced by a recent meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Yemeni counterpart, Shaya Mohsen al-Zindani.
While recent US media reports have suggested that Moscow might supply arms to the Houthis; both Yakushev and Ahmed Dahshan, Chairman of the Center for Arab-Eurasian Studies, agreed that it is unlikely Russia will provide direct support to the group, even though it is aware that some of its weapons, provided to other countries such as Iran, may reach the Houthis.
On whether investing in a relationship with the Houthis could affect Russia’s economic ties with the Gulf states, Dahshan said, “Russia will market their relationship with the Houthis as being beneficial for the Gulf. It will be able to better control them and use its leverage with the group.”
Hussam Radman, a researcher with the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, said Russia’s leverage over and support for the Houthis is exaggerated. “If the Russians were serious about a long-term investment in the Houthis and their attacks, they could have vetoed the UN Security Council Resolution that allowed Americans and other forces to carry out defensive actions in the Red Sea.” Regionally, Moscow will likely maintain neutrality, avoiding taking sides between Iran and Saudi Arabia, added Radman, while strategic competition with the US will remain a defining factor in Russian foreign policy.
Maysaa Shuja al-Deen, a senior researcher with the Sana’a Center, said that the longer the crisis goes on, the more quickly the casus belli behind the Houthi’s Red Sea attacks will be forgotten. “The Houthis have discovered the importance of Yemen’s location […] and now have an appetite to play a role as a regional actor.”