اقرأ المحتوى باللغة العربية
On July 19, a Houthi drone struck an apartment building a few hundred meters from the US Embassy branch office in Tel Aviv, killing one person and injuring a dozen others. The Houthi group (Ansar Allah) announced that they used a Yafa drone that carries a high explosive payload and is equipped with stealth technology. Experts reported that the Yafa is an upgraded version of the Samad 3 drone, which has been used effectively by the Houthis before, most notably in the attack on Abu Dhabi Airport in July 2018. A Yemeni military who spoke with the Sana’a Center speculated that the drone was launched from Kamaran Island in the Red Sea and avoided detection by flying over Eritrea, Sudan, and Egypt to the Mediterranean, then approaching Tel Aviv from the West. The Israelis deny that the drone has stealth capabilities and claim that it was detected, but since it was coming from the west, it wasn’t considered a threat, given that sometimes birds and natural phenomena trigger radar detection. However, if the Houthis succeed in carrying out similar attacks and breaching Israel’s fabled Iron Dome defenses, the strategic significance will be profound, and may undermine Netanyahu’s plans to widen the war by invading southern Lebanon.
Israel responded with a massive attack on civilian targets at the port of Hudaydah, killing at least six workers and injuring over 80 others. The strikes also destroyed fuel tanks in the vicinity of the port and targeted gantry cranes to prevent the port from handling container cargo. The attack has caused significant hardship to the civilian population of Yemen and could cripple humanitarian assistance to the 12 million food-insecure Yemenis. There is not sufficient port capacity in all of Yemen to make up for the loss at Hudaydah. Furthermore, the strike will cause insurance and shipping costs to skyrocket, causing more Yemenis to become food insecure. Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared that further Houthi attacks on Israel will provoke an even harsher retaliation and that the“result will be identical” to its ongoing action in Lebanon and Gaza. A Western diplomatic source said that Saudi Arabia asked the US to pressure the Israelis to limit their attacks to Hudaydah and not to target the port of Al-Salif, which handles bulk cargoes of grain, as this could have triggered famine in Houthi-controlled areas. The Israelis also agreed to spare Sana’a at this time. However, given that Marco Rubio, Vice Chair of the Armed Services Committee in the US Senate, has called for targeting the Houthi leadership, it is only logical that the Israelis would do so if provoked again.
This escalation on the part of the Houthis is not a surprise; they have repeatedly declared war against Israel since their inception. However, the strike couldn’t have succeeded without Iranian technical and material support. So, the question is why Iran – which has taken pains to avoid unnecessary escalation with Israel, as demonstrated in its elaborate coordination with the US for the casualty-free attack on April 13, decided to undertake this particular act of escalation. The answer is simple: the Houthi attack on Tel Aviv was not escalatory as far as Iran is concerned. The logic was probably as follows: As Israel was preparing to mount a major offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran needed to apply military pressure to decrease its ability to carry out that operation. At the same time, Iran did not want to give Netanyahu further excuse to widen the war and draw it into direct confrontation with the US, a prospect that both sides have tried to avoid. The Houthi attack on Israel achieved this balance. It has drawn some of Israel’s offensive capabilities toward the Houthis and away from Hezbollah but does not invite escalation against Iran.
The Houthis have a greater capacity to absorb Israeli attacks due to the size of their territory. Moreover, unlike the majority of the people of Lebanon, who are not willing to be drawn into the conflict and suffer for the sake of Gazans, Yemenis are extremely passionate about the Palestinian cause and willing to bear the consequences. Over the past few years, the Houthis’ suffocating tyranny and oppressive extortion of the population have caused widespread resentment. However, since they commenced military action in solidarity with the people of Gaza and with the Palestinian resistance, massive rallies of hundreds of thousands of Yemenis have taken place after every Friday prayer. The rally after the attack on Tel Aviv was the largest. One international commentator jokingly remarked that the Houthis have achieved global pop star status. They are enjoying a similar rise in popularity at home.