اقرأ المحتوى باللغة العربية
Over the past few days, Yemen has witnessed a series of dramatic developments that could profoundly reshape the local and regional dynamics of the conflict. First, the Houthis succeeded in breaching Israeli air defenses with a ballistic missile attack targeting Ben Gurion Airport. Second, Israel launched a markedly more destructive response, striking economic infrastructure in Yemen and rendering both the port of Hudaydah and Sana’a Airport completely inoperable. Finally, US President Donald Trump announced a halt to US airstrikes in Yemen after the Houthis agreed to cease attacks against the US Navy and commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
This rapid and stunning turn of events effectively signals that Washington has chosen to relinquish its role as a geopolitical stabilizer at the very time when the Israeli-Iranian confrontation is reaching its peak in Yemen. Tracing the strategic context in the region since March serves as a useful starting point for understanding the drivers behind the US decision to deescalate in Yemen and, consequently, for anticipating the future trajectory of the conflict.
Four US Objectives
Trump has made no secret of his preference for deal-making over warfare. However, this has not prevented him from taking risks or projecting strength when faced with a strategic test. Such a test came on March 11, when the Houthis announced the resumption of operations in the Red Sea in response to Israel’s blockade of aid into Gaza. Trump, who is also keen to project himself as unpredictable, swiftly launched an aerial campaign against the Houthis, inflicting significant losses on the group. However, the effectiveness of American military action was undercut by a lack of clarity regarding its desired endgame in Yemen. The Trump administration showed little interest in diplomatic engagement from the outset, openly declaring that its actions had nothing to do with Yemen’s civil war or with supporting Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
Still, the US ramped up military operations, using the Yemeni conflict as a strategic opportunity for advancing four primary objectives in the Middle East:
1. Projecting Strength and Securing Maritime Routes
Trump sought to position himself as a strong leader capable of restoring freedom of navigation — something he claimed his predecessor, Joe Biden, had failed to achieve. In his statement announcing the launch of military operations in Yemen, Trump described the Biden administration’s approach to the Houthis as “pathetically weak,” saying it had encouraged the group to press forward.
2. Rebuilding Trust with Gulf Allies
By proactively countering security threats emanating from Yemen, Trump aimed to restore regional states’ confidence in US protection, which had eroded after the 2019 attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia did not provoke a forceful response from Washington. This effort dovetailed with renewed defense and trade cooperation and diplomatic engagement with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. According to regional diplomatic sources, serious discussions took place regarding the feasibility of military action in Yemen against the Houthis to roll back Iranian influence, with the fall of the Assad regime in Syria as a model. These deliberations were reflected in Saudi and Emirati media coverage and comments by their allies in Yemen.
3. Backing Israel while Containing the Conflict
Trump emphasized the US’s commitment to Israel’s security while simultaneously seeking to prevent an expansion of the conflict. In exchange for direct American intervention in Yemen, Trump reportedly imposed red lines on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including prohibitions on launching operations in Yemen or a direct strike against Iran.
4. Using Pressure to Revive Negotiations with Iran
Trump sought to reactivate diplomatic channels with Tehran through an expanded “maximum pressure” campaign targeting the Houthis, the strongest remaining member of Iran’s regional proxy network. This prompted Iranian diplomatic efforts to rein in Houthi military actions and reopen channels with the US, culminating in the launch of US-Iranian negotiations in Muscat on April 12.
The Yemen File Within US-Iran Talks
The first round of talks between Washington and Tehran focused on setting an agenda for the negotiations. Three contentious issues dominated the discussions: Iran’s nuclear program, its missile program, and its support for regional proxy forces.
Tehran reportedly refused to discuss its missile program, insisting it was a matter of national sovereignty. However, it reportedly offered the Trump administration investment opportunities worth up to US$1 trillion, and began to send positive signals indicating its readiness to negotiate regional issues. On April 7, several senior Iraqi officials said Iranian-backed militia in Iraq were willing to disarm. On April 9, a senior Hezbollah official said that the group was open to a Lebanese dialogue discussing the future of its weapons arsenal. Two days later, on April 11, senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti declared, “We do not consider ourselves at war with the American people. If the United States stops targeting Yemen, we, in turn, will stop our military operations against it.” Meanwhile, The Telegraph quoted a senior official in Iran as saying that Tehran had decided to withdraw its military personnel from Yemen and cease support for the Houthis.
These seemingly conciliatory signals ultimately failed to sway Washington. According to two diplomatic sources—one Arab and one Western—the US rejected the inclusion of regional issues, particularly the Yemeni file, in the negotiation agenda. The US likely assessed Iran’s regional situation as vulnerable following setbacks in Lebanon and Syria and viewed Tehran’s proposals not as genuine concessions, but as an attempt to preserve what remained of its influence. As a result, Washington intensified military and economic pressure against the Houthis while simultaneously allowing negotiations with Tehran to proceed.
The Houthis would escalate in turn. On April 13, the group began launching more regular attacks against US naval assets as well as against Israel. Still, both sides appeared committed to keeping the conflict at a manageable level. The Houthis avoided attacks against commercial ships and certain tactics, such as swarm attacks, while Washington restrained Israel from striking Yemen in response to attempted drone and missile attacks. This controlled confrontation played out as US-Iran negotiations advanced, aiming to reach a framework for a potential nuclear agreement.
Different Means, Same End
The four goals that led President Trump to escalate in Yemen ultimately pushed him to reconsider the effectiveness of the military campaign against the Houthis. Notably, as the US-Iran negotiations progressed, Arab countries became increasingly committed to a political rapprochement with Iran, rather than seeking to geopolitically displace it. A clear sign of this shift was the Iranian-Egyptian diplomatic coordination that followed each round of negotiations. The most significant turning point came with Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman’s visit to Tehran. In a meeting with Supreme Leader Khamenei, the prince delivered a message from his father, King Salman, covering four key areas: Palestine, Yemen, bilateral security, and Iran’s dialogue with the US. The message urged Iran to use its influence to restrain the Houthis and reduce tensions in the Red Sea as steps that would contribute to accelerating the Iranian-American dialogue.
Around the same time, rumored plans for a US-backed ground offensive in Yemen seemingly lost momentum, and Riyadh shifted focus to leveraging President Trump’s upcoming visit to revive peace mediation efforts. Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed al-Jaber met at the end of April with the internationally recognized government’s Consultation and Reconciliation Commission and political party leaders for talks “in support of peace efforts, comprehensive national reconciliation, and the stabilization of Yemen.”
In early May, United Nations Special Envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg met with Yemeni Foreign Minister Shaya al-Zindani, Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council Jasem al-Budaiwi, Ambassador Al-Jaber, and other diplomats, including ambassadors from five UN Security Council permanent members in Riyadh.
As the Iran-US talks progressed, shifting from political to technical details, Israel launched a “shadow war” to circumvent Washington’s restrictions on military action and hasten efforts to disrupt the negotiations. An explosion at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas in late April, variously attributed to negligence or an Israeli attack, killed more than 40 people and wounded over 1,000. In early May, the Houthis targeted Ben Gurion Airport with a missile and declared a no-fly zone over Israel. This move could have been pushed by Iran in retaliation for Bandar Abbas, in an effort to reestablish deterrence.
Backlash in Washington Spurs Yemen Deal
Perhaps the most significant factor influencing the evolution of US policy in Yemen was the fact that the US military campaign had come under increasing domestic criticism. By mid-April, the deployment was being described by critics as expensive and aimless, with risks of dragging the US into another endless war. In early May, President Trump fired National Security Advisor Michael Waltz. The dismissal of Waltz, an Iran hawk, underscored Trump’s increasing commitment to diplomacy with Tehran and his willingness to purge potential dissenters within his administration. This carrot was accompanied by a stick, as US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a stern warning to Iran that it would pay a price for its support of the Houthis in Yemen.
Ultimately, these developments signaled Washington’s readiness to reconsider de-escalation in Yemen with help from Iran. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who has led the negotiations with Tehran, worked with Oman to broker a ceasefire with the Houthis over the past week. However, the structure of the agreement was fundamentally a US-Iranian initiative. For Iran’s part, it sought to achieve two objectives in Yemen: Protect its Houthi allies from further damaging US strikes; and remove Washington from the arena amid its ongoing conflict with Israel.
Looking Ahead
However, international efforts to desecalate in Yemen have limits. The Houthis have said that action against Israel would continue despite the ceasefire deal with the US. Efforts by Iran to curb future Houthi attacks would likely face resistance given the leadership’s public commitment to solidarity with Palestinians amid a renewed Israeli military campaign in Gaza. Israel, meanwhile, has likely assessed that even painful strikes in Yemen will not deter further Houthi attacks, which could provide a pretext for future direct action against Iran.
However, the Houthi-US ceasefire may be a blow to Israel’s plans. Netanyahu was not informed ahead of time, and the deal made no mention of Israel. This leaves open the possibility that Trump will leave it to face down future threats from the Houthis and Iran alone. Netanyahu was also reportedly surprised at Trump’s decision not to include Israel on the itinerary of his upcoming regional trip.
For his part, Trump appears to have scored a series of tactical wins. The US-Iran negotiation track has been reinforced ahead of the fourth round of negotiations in Muscat. The ceasefire in Yemen applies pressure on Israel, which has been attempting to disrupt the nuclear negotiations and refuses to halt its war in Gaza. Deescalation in Yemen also sets the stage for a more positive visit to Riyadh. On the domestic front, Trump has portrayed the ceasefire as a triumph and himself as the man who forced the Houthis to surrender.
However, this Trumpian deal is vulnerable to spoilers, most notably Israel, the Houthis, and Iran. While it’s unclear whether these actors will commit to restraint, at present, it seems that Trump is not preoccupied with such questions. Rather, he appears more intent on building on the current momentum to achieve additional immediate wins during his upcoming Middle East visit.