The Islamic Republic of Iran has been rocked by major street protests since September. As these show no sign of slowing down, there are growing questions about the future of the regime. Four broad scenarios appear possible: the regime succeeds in quelling the demonstrations and the country returns to the pre-September status quo; the regime quells the protests but emerges…

Early 2022 saw rekindled hopes for progress toward resolving the war in Yemen with the UN-sponsored truce between the internationally recognized government and the Houthi movement, and the formation of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). Both moves were considered potential precursors to formal talks between the warring parties, with the PLC specifically viewed as an example of power-sharing that could…

The UN-brokered truce in Yemen that collapsed October 2, despite efforts to prolong it, disappointed Yemenis and those in the international community who had hoped it could be the groundwork for a lasting peace agreement ending more than seven years of war. During the preceding six months, the truce lessened some of the conflict's devastating effects. Economically, it allowed for…

In the past, the Yemeni state celebrated only holidays that held national significance. These included the anniversaries of several major political moments in Yemen’s history: September 26, marking the ousting of the Imamate and the establishment of a republican regime in the north; October 14, commemorating the start of the uprising against British colonial rule in the south; November 30,…

In the second week of October, the Saudi government made a bold proposal to the Houthis. They invited the nominal leader of the de facto authorities in Sana’a, Mahdi al-Mashat, President of the Supreme Political Council and Supreme Commander of the armed forces, to visit Riyadh, meet Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, and discuss a peace deal. This was the…

Hassan Baoum’s calls for independence, first for Yemen and later for southern Yemen, date to the early 1960s, at times landing him in jail or exile. His 2017 demand that Arab coalition countries fighting the armed Houthi movement end their “foreign occupation” of the south was perceived as so extreme by the coalition-backed Yemeni government that it prolonged his exile…

The General People’s Congress (GPC) is going through an unprecedented period of weakness as it recently marked the 40th anniversary of its founding on August 24. The party was born from the national dialogue conducted in the early 1980s following a brutal civil war, and every Yemeni president since has been a high-ranking member of the party. Former President Ali…

Long-running tensions in Shabwa devolved into heavy fighting in the governorate capital Ataq on August 8, pitting Islah-affiliated security forces against UAE-backed units. Back-and-forth fighting over three days ended on August 10 with the Giants Brigades and Shabwa Defense forces, supported by UAE drone strikes, securing control of the city and Islah-affiliated commanders fleeing the governorate. The battle in Shabwa…

Osama bin Laden had always admired his loyal soldiers in Yemen. In particular, he respected his secretary from the Afghan jihad years, whom he viewed as his spiritual successor, Nasser al-Wuhayshi. It was Al-Wuhayshi who took over the task of rebuilding Al-Qaeda in Yemen, before merging it with its Saudi branch to form Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Driven…

Mariam was 13 years old when she escaped with her family from fighting near their hometown Al-Shalilah, a village outside the port city of Haradh in northern Hajjah governorate. After first finding refuge in the Al-Shia’ab camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs), less than two years later, at the age of 14, she was married off to a fellow villager…