Eleven years separate the outbreak of the wider war in Yemen and the current escalation. During this period, Yemen has undergone profound political, military, and regional transformations, even though many of the principal local and regional actors remain broadly the same. The 2015 war was largely a continuation of the domestic struggle that began with the 2011 uprisings, centered on the relationship between state and society and how to reform it. Democracy, political representation, and federalism were at the heart of this debate. While the conflict quickly acquired regional dimensions, its roots were primarily domestic.

The 2026 war, by contrast, has moved far beyond questions of domestic governance. It has become a fundamental dispute over the existence of the state itself: whether Yemen can preserve its territorial integrity and republican system, or whether it will collapse under the imposition of theocratic rule. At the same time, the conflict has become increasingly intertwined with regional wars and produced global repercussions, and its local roots are now increasingly neglected.

Narratives and Legitimacy

In 2015, the war was primarily framed as a conflict to restore the internationally recognized government after the Houthi coup in Sana’a. The government’s own legitimacy was the primary political message by which it sought to mobilize and rally support. Today, this narrative has shifted. When Rashad al-Alimi, the head of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), announced the launch of Operation Dawn of Yemen, a broad military campaign against the Houthis, he emphasized the need to defend not the current government, but the republican system itself. The shift is significant. Many Yemenis question the legitimacy of the current leadership, appointed by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Framing the new campaign as a defense of the republican system provides a broader and more convincing basis for mobilization than the defense of a government whose legitimacy and effectiveness are both in doubt.

By contrast, the Houthi narrative has remained relatively consistent since the war began in 2015. The group continues to portray itself as the defender of Yemeni sovereignty against foreign intervention. It describes its domestic opponents as “mercenaries” and portrays its struggle as one of national resistance. Sustained foreign involvement, including military campaigns by the US and Israel, reinforces this narrative.

Political Power and Cohesion

In 2015, the anti-Houthi camp was smaller and less fragmented. It lacked the rivalries that later solidified, including the divergence between the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and the government, and the associated rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Then-President Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi exercised considerable authority, particularly during the early stages of the war.

The collapse of the Houthis’ alliance with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh in 2017, culminating in Saleh’s killing, marked a major turning point. As the Houthis consolidated control over state institutions in the North, the remnants of Saleh’s decades-old networks fractured. A significant portion joined the anti-Houthi camp, increasing its size and representation but also deepening its fragmentation. As a result, the anti-Houthi camp grew but became more politically fractured, while the Houthis evolved a more cohesive, totalitarian governance model. The Houthis have repeatedly capitalized on their opponents’ fragmentation, while the anti-Houthi camp has failed to exploit the Houthis’ inability to build genuine social or political alliances.

Military Capabilities and Intelligence

In 2015, the Houthis inherited significant parts of Yemen’s pre-war military capabilities, compounding the advantage of extensive combat experience the group had accrued from years of fighting against the government in Sa’ada. By contrast, the government had relatively weak, fragmented military forces and initially depended heavily on popular resistance in cities such as Taiz and Aden, as well as on Saudi air power.

Both sides have since improved their capabilities. The Houthis have gained considerable experience navigating airstrikes and developed significant drone and missile capabilities. They have also transformed themselves from a predominantly domestic armed movement into a military actor capable of conducting operations around the region.

The anti-Houthi camp has made advances in its weaponry and developed more organized military groups, but it still lacks a unified military command. Rival chains of command and competing political loyalties remain major obstacles to effective coordination, a disadvantage made plain by the recent fighting.

The most notable change since the war began, however, has been in intelligence. The Houthis have greatly improved their ability to infiltrate the opposition networks, recruit informants, monitor communications, and exploit technological vulnerabilities. In the latest escalation, the penetration of government military communications facilitated their advance into Al-Makha. At the same time, they are no longer the opaque force they were in 2015. Their adversaries, not least the Israelis, now understand their organizational structures, capabilities, and vulnerabilities much better.

The current military contest is being fought by actors who are considerably more experienced and capable than they were 11 years ago.

Regional Instability and the Changing International System

In 2015, Operation Decisive Storm was launched in an international environment that broadly supported it, and was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2216. That support gradually waned amid rising civilian casualties and shifted toward condemnation and pressure to stop the war.

Today, the international environment is more fragmented. Russia and China have adopted different positions on Yemen, amid growing global tensions and rivalry with the US and its Western allies. Nonetheless, the US and its allies still appear determined to support Saudi Arabia in confronting the Houthis and removing their threat to maritime traffic.

The regional landscape is also very different. Yemen’s war has become increasingly intertwined with wider regional confrontations, particularly those involving Israel, Iran, the US, and their respective allies. For Iran, the Houthis have become one of its most important regional partners following brutal Israeli military campaigns against other members of the Axis of Resistance. In addition, the strategic importance of the Houthis’ power and threat projection in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab has also increased, adding another vital card to the Iranian hand.

Saudi Arabia’s position has also evolved. Riyadh remains deeply involved in Yemen and financially supports the internationally recognized government. But it appears more cautious about repeating the direct military intervention of 2015, particularly as the Houthis are now able to regularly target Saudi territory and Saudi shipping in the Red Sea. The group has become a far more dangerous foe for the Kingdom.

Overall, the relationship between the Houthis and Iran has grown more cohesive and unified in its objectives and goals over the past decade, while the partnership between Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognized government has suffered from a persistent lack of trust and strategic clarity.

A More Dangerous War

Ironically, the one constant between 2015 and 2026 is both sides’ continued failure to present an appealing, broadly acceptable model of governance.

Yemen now has more experienced and capable armed actors, deeper political fragmentation, stronger regional entanglements, and greater strategic importance to international powers. The country has not only returned to war; Yemen now finds itself in a fundamentally different and more dangerous conflict. Once viewed as a local battle, it is now a high-stakes geopolitical struggle with regional and global ramifications. But there is another constant, too: the crushing weight of the war remains firmly on the shoulders of ordinary Yemenis.

This commentary is part of a series of publications produced by the Sana’a Center and funded by the government of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The series explores issues within economic, political, and environmental themes, aiming to inform discussion and policymaking related to Yemen that foster sustainable peace.