Executive Summary

The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council’s (STC) December takeover of Hadramawt and Al-Mahra precipitated a massive shift in Yemen’s political and security landscape. After nearly a month of failed negotiations, Saudi-backed forces counterattacked and, aided by local tribesmen and air support, found quick success. STC-affiliated forces were forced to retreat to Aden before ultimately ceding control of the interim capital. STC leader Aiderous al-Zubaidi has reportedly fled to the UAE. The government has now charged him with high treason, and the dissolution of his organization was announced from Riyadh.

Political tensions in Hadramawt intensified over the fall as a rivalry escalated between the STC and pro-government and local tribal forces. The ensuing fighting triggered both a domestic political crisis and a regional confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Riyadh now enjoys a dominant position in Yemen’s south and is reorganizing the government and military ahead of an upcoming intra-south dialogue. UAE-backed National Resistance forces leader Tareq Saleh and Giants Brigades leader Abdelrahman “Abu Zara’a” al-Muharrami have been brought into the fold. The latter has been charged with securing Aden.

Frontlines remained fragile but stable throughout the autumn, with fighting taking place in Taiz, Lahj, Al-Dhalea, Shabwa, Abyan, and Hudaydah. In Al-Jawf, intermittent clashes were recorded between pro-government forces and the Houthi group (Ansar Allah) throughout November, but did not result in any major territorial changes, and casualties remained low. In late December, fighting broke out for the first time in ten months along the Aqabat Halhal front in Abyan’s Lawdar district, possibly triggered by the redeployment of Nation’s Shield forces.

The Houthis continued their campaign to kidnap, detain, and issue death sentences to UN staff, aid workers, and members of civil society working in northern Yemen. The total number of UN detainees is now more than 70. International concern continues to grow over the detentions and the escalation of espionage accusations and show trials.

On December 23, the UN announced a preliminary agreement between the Houthis and the government to exchange more than 2,900 abductees and prisoners. The agreement reportedly includes the release of Islah-affiliated politician Mohammed Qahtan, a key demand in previous negotiations. It is unclear whether Qahtan is still alive.

Gulf officials indicated that Saudi Arabia is interested in reviving talks with the Houthis following the ceasefire in Gaza. Bilateral negotiations in 2022 and 2023 aimed at normalizing relations before transitioning to broader intra-Yemeni negotiations. On October 30, chief Houthi negotiator Mohammed Abdelsalam stated that talks had begun with UN Special Envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg regarding the implementation of the Saudi-Houthi roadmap. It is unclear how the reorganization of the government will impact talks.

The UN’s Yemen Humanitarian Response Plan faced its largest funding gap in a decade. OCHA reported that the 2025 aid plan received only US$687.9 million, equivalent to 28 percent of the requested US$2.48 billion.

According to the World Food Programme, 61 percent of surveyed households in Yemen struggled to meet their minimum food needs in November, 35 percent of which faced severe food insecurity. Thirty-two percent of households in Houthi-controlled areas reported moderate to severe hunger, up 6 percent year on year, compared to 25 percent in government-controlled areas, down 8 percent.

A severe gas shortage impacted Aden and other cities under government control from late November through December. The disruption resulted in long queues of cars and buses at the few stations that remained open.

The price of the new rial remained stable, trading around YR1,628 per US$1. The price of old rials circulating in Houthi-controlled areas also remained flat, at YR536 per US$1.